Fundamental Analysis, Monday we have Chinese manufacturing PMI they’re expecting this number to go down slightly since the GDP was better than they were expecting. so we would expect this number to be better as well so short term. You would expect Aussie Piers to go to the upside because they have a direct impact on the Aussie players.
Then after that we have a CPI you know for Flash year on year and the core CPI as well for 5.3 . So both of these numbers they’re expecting it to go down I wouldn’t be surprised, since they have keep you know increasing the interest rate by 25 basis points. So that would be potentially the case and if that would be the case short-term, Euro will also be pushing to the downside. just this tiny you know temporary bit before it starts to push back up again.
Tuesday, we have a cash rate interest rate they are expected to increase it to 25 basis points. I will doubt this one because then CPI is under control comparatively every single you know the top Banks Aussie bank is doing great job because the inflation is under control. unemployment is under control there’s no point for them to increase the interest rate here. Okay I’m just looking at the KPIs, this is my intake the personal intake if they do that you’re gonna see that Aussie will be you know quite stronger but I do not see that happening. And because of that you might see Aussie falling down structurally it is ready to go down after this pullback which is what we are going to trade first the Monday. The Tuesday before this news if Aussie has gone to the upside that is your trade to the downside because of this news.
Then we have dollar job opening and the manufacturing PMI. Both of these numbers they’re expecting you to be staying it’s the same sort of range so you might expect some sort of a pullback in the dollar before it start to push up.
Unemployment rate for the New Zealand they’re expecting it to go to the upside. if that would be the case I’m not really sure what will be the basis behind that because looking at the interest rate looking at the CPI. it is pretty much under control but because they’ve been increasing the interest rate massively. even last time, they have done that when they was not expecting it. So it always have an impact on unemployment rate. so yes, you probably would see some sort of a push to the upside which means you’re going to see a drop in the New Zealand as well and both. These pairs I do see them structures breaking down after the pullback.
Then on Wednesday, we have ADP non-farm employment change again this then this number they’re expecting it to be slightly lower than the last time but again this number is mostly you know, you’d see that it doesn’t do much of an impact on the market. Because everyone is waiting for this number here, so that’s where we will potentially talk about what really is coming on Wednesday, you will have my you know updated session anyway. Then on Thursday, we have CPI month on month they’re expecting the CPI number to go dow by you know by point two percent com compared to the last point one percent. So that’s a negative point one percent well if that will be the case you would expect you know Chief to fall in terms of the structure I do see that Happening.
Then we have a GBP interest rate, as well it will be very interesting because again they are going to increase the interest rate. This is the the reason why I’m saying it will be interesting is because this is going to be our trade of the month for August. So that’s why we will potentially be looking for this has been an opportunity to enter for our sell, what I really want in the best case scenario for this news to push the GBP to the upside and then later the rest of the month we shall be looking for all the way to the downside towards one two five level o.
Unemployment claims after that we have on Thursday. But most of the time you would see that when they have a big news like this you know the rest of the day. Market will be actually following the same sort of a Direction but if there is any change in the structure I’ll let you know. but in all you know terms they are expecting this PMI service number to go down which means they probably would be expecting the dollar to fall a bit more down. I will give you the levels anyway . Where you should be looking for your buy setups. then we’ll conclude the week with the cad unemployment rate again they’re expecting this number to go up as well.
NFP remember after this GBP news, You would expect Market to start manipulating a little bit until this news. So between the the New York sessions starting on Thursday until the New York session starting on Friday, you would expect Market to manipulate a little. This is pretty normal you know in the market whenever we have NFP news 24 hours before you’ll see that market will start to doing this sort of messy structures. So don’t be surprised it won’t change the direction what I will give it to you on Wednesday. but in all the cases I’m just warning in advance so you don’t get you know frustrated if Market keeps on taking you out, as at break evens.
But in all the cases I’m expecting if the first half of the week Market keeps on consolidating to the downside the NFP is going to push this to the upside in terms of the structure. We’ll talk about Fundamental Analysis as well today for the dollar that what we are expecting and what Market is so far giving us and how we are going to seed for the rest of this month.
