Forex Weekly Outlook for 05 April to 09 April, 2021
In this forex weekly outlook, we will discuss the fundamental and technical aspects of the financial market and possible trading opportunities.
This week it would be muted due to the Easter holiday where investors may remain paused. As a result of the low liquidity, we may see less movement in the price in most of the major currency pairs.
However, the RBA meets and FOMC minutes would be the main focus. On the other hand, the Canadian employment report may provide further info about the USDCAD. Currently, the foreign exchange market is dominated by the strong Dollar where the CAD is facing the second position.
Let’s start the forex weekly analysis with the EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading just below the 1.20 psychological event level, indicating a bearish trend in the price. Moreover, for more than 7 days the price is trading below the 1.1850 event level where a correction is pending, right now.
For this week we are expecting a bullish correction in the price towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA on the daily chart from where a bearish pressure may continue.
AUD/USD managed to have a daily close above the 0.7560 level with a potential double bottom pattern. Therefore, the double bottom pattern within a long term bullish trend is potential for further bullish pressure in the price. However, to confirm the upcoming bullish pressure, we need a new intraday high.
Therefore as long as the prices are trading above the double bottom we may face some bullish possibility in the price. Conversely, if the price moves down below the 0.7530 level and has a daily close, a bearish trend may continue.
XAU/USD is moving downside within a bearish trend where the price faced some minor resistance at the 1742 level where the static and dynamic 20 EMA stays. Later on, as soon as the price broke below this level and had a daily close, a new low formed.
The interesting fact about Gold is that instead of making a new low below the 1677.78 level, the price bounced back with a counter impulsive pressure.
Therefore, the bearish trend became questionable right now but as long as the dynamic resistance is in play, we should wait and find a suitable selling position.
The selling position might be the intraday rejection from the near term resistance 1742, another a bullish daily close above this level may alter the current market structure.
Bitcoin price is quite different from other currency pairs as it is associated with some unexpected market movement. During 2017 or 2020, we have seen some strong bearish market crash in Bitcoin while investors may expect the same situation now.
Therefore, we need to be cautious about the Bitcoin value as it is already priced in. As long as the price is trading below the $60,000 level, bearish pressure may appear with the target of $50,000 level, this week.
Overall, we may expect a corrective momentum this week due to the less activity of traders. However, strong volatility may appear during the Canadian Employment and RBA meets.