Weekly Outlook for 04 May 2020 to 08 May 2020
U.S. GDP faded at a rate of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020. It is a hint of what may come in the coming quarter.
Consumer spending has declined as people have been restricted in their homes, which is the most evident signal of a record plunge in services consumption in March 2020.
Therefore, the April data might show the worst result than that.
More Americans lost their jobs last week, with total initial jobless claims at roughly 30 million.
The U.S. experienced notable drops in activity in March and April. However, with many states set to re-open this week, the U.S. economy may find some hope to recover.
There are several essential releases this week, including the BOE interest rate decision and the US Non-Farm payroll. Therefore, we may experience some good movement until the week.
Let’s start the Weekly forecast with EURUSD
The EURUSD price rejected the 1.0783 level as we expected. The price moved to the upper boundary of the zone at 1.0991 and made some bullish rejection.
In this market condition, todays daily close is essential. If we see a bearish daily close today, the price is likely to continue lower to extend the current range.
In that case, we will wait for the intraday market rejection from the dynamic level to join the trade.
The GBPUSD bulls were powerful last week but failed to hold the momentum as they were unable to make a new high.
Although the price is above the 1.2450 level, it may continue higher depending on the market condition.
In that sense, we need to see a bearish daily close below 1.2450 to join the bearish trend with the target of 1.2200.
On the other hand, a bearish rejection of 1.2450 with a bullish daily close may alter the current market structure.
The USDJPY price moved lower at 106.50 support level and managed to have a bullish daily close above it.
As the bears failed to hold the market below that level, we may experience an upcoming bullish pressure in the price. In that case, our primary target would be the 108.30 area.
On the other hand, a strong daily close below 106.50 may drag the price more down towards 105.80 levels.
The AUDUSD moved higher with an impulsive bullish pressure but failed to hold the price above 0.6450 level.
As the price managed to have a daily close below 0.6450 level, the price is likely to continue lower in the coming days.
However, the main challenge the price may face is the dynamic level od 20 EMA on the daily timeframe.
A bearish rejection from the dynamic level might make the scenario volatile while a break below the dynamic level with a daily close would be potential for the price to test 0.6200 levels.
Overall, this week we may face some correction in most of the currency pairs as it is just the beginning of the week. Moreover, the fundamental releases, along with COVID-19 news, might make the market volatile.