Forex Weekly Outlook- 26 July to 30 July, 2021
After a lot of volatility, the US Dollar lifted near the yearly high and moved to the US Presidential election level between 92.00 to 94.00. Now we should see how price reacts to the US FOMC and GDP. Any dovish tone from the FOMC may create massive selling pressure on the USD.
The US Dollar index is moving upon an ascending channel, followed by a golden cross. Therefore, as long as the price is above the 92.8 level we can consider the bullish pressure as valid.
So, considering economic releases, let’s see what might happen in the coming days:
EUR/USD is volatile below the 1.1831 resistance level. Last week, the price tried to move up from support with stronger CPIs but failed. As a result, the rejection in the daily candle remains as an indication of upcoming selling pressure.
Therefore, we should see how the price reacts on the 1.1712 would be a significant price level for this week from where any rejection may take the price higher above the 1.1831 area.
GBP/USD moved below the 1.3800 level with strong bearish pressure. However, the price failed to hold the bearish pressure below the 1.3680 level and rebounded with a bullish daily close.
Therefore, any rejection from the 1.3800 level may resume the current selling pressure. However, MACD Histogram is moving up where any positive Histogram with a bullish daily close above 1.3800 may alter the current market structure.
AUD/USD bearish from last week that was boosted by the weaker retail sales data. However, as the price moved above 0.7323, we may expect some bullish correction.
The AUD/USD daily chart shows correction after five consecutive bearish days. Now the price is within the range of 0.7323 and 0.7439 and below the dynamic 20 EMA. Therefore, a stable price above the dynamic 20 EMA with a Hawkish FOMC may take the price higher towards the 0.7580 area.
The Gold moved lower below the dynamic 20 EMA on the daily chart, and the selling pressure may extend in the coming days.
This week, we should rely on how the Fed releases FOMC where any dovish tone may create a massive US Dollar weakness. In that case, any bullish D1 close above the 1815.00 level may initiate a strong buying pressure in the price.
Bitcoin bulls as soon as the price failed to hold the bearish momentum below the $30k level. Now the bullish sentiment is valid as long as the price is above the $33k level.
Based on this price context, investors should find the BTCUSD price above the 35,000 level to consider the upcoming price direction as bullish that may move towards the 40,000 level.